Will any electric or hydrogen passenger airplane that can seat at least 100 people be in commercial use before 2033?
Will any electric or hydrogen passenger airplane that can seat at least 100 people be in commercial use before 2033?
➕
Plus
13
Ṁ705
2033
32%
chance

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

Hydrogen maybe but probably not because methane is so much easier to work with. Battery definitely not because the range would be too short. A typical car gets 600 miles range on a 20 gallon fuel tank that weighs 120 pounds. A long range model 3 gets 363 miles range on a 1060 pound battery. That’s 5 miles per pound of fuel vs 0.33 miles per pound of fuel. Modern airliners with a 15x reduction in fuel capacity would be unusable.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules