Will any minority pilot on a US airline make a mistake that results in at least one other person's death before 2028? | Manifold

Will any minority pilot on a US airline make a mistake that results in at least one other person's death before 2028?

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10

Ṁ303

2028

60%

chance

1D

1W

1M

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Context: https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1746712218274529690

"Minority pilot" refers to anyone who could plausibly be accused of being a DEI hire.

The mistake needs to be in the context of the skill of flying a plane for their job. A car crash doesn't count, even if they were driving to their job at the airport. Running the plane into something while on the ground would count. Crashing a personal plane they were flying for fun does not count. If it's an intentional murder/suicide like flight 9525, that counts too.

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Some clarifying questions that have come up in my mind with the recent crash:

1. Would a minority pilot who was flying sufficiently well, but was crashed "into" still count as them making a mistake for the purpose of this market (e.g. if the pilots of AA5342 were "minority pilot"s would this resolve yes)?
2. Do both the captain and first officer count as pilot for the purpose of this question, and does it matter who had controls at the time of the incident in case of a mixed cockpit?
3. Would a minority pilot flying a personal plane, crashing into a commercial plane count?

Would an Asian count as. DEI hire?

@JimAusman Do you think they could plausibly be accused of being such?

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