Will anyone implement a system resembling the one described in https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2011-11-04 on Manifold by the end of 2025?
Will anyone implement a system resembling the one described in https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2011-11-04 on Manifold by the end of 2025?
Basic
10
Ṁ2462026
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
If they make a market and give a bit of info in the comments but stop short of installing cameras would that count?
predictedNO 2y
@RobinFoster Cameras in the bedroom aren't a requirement, but it needs to be at least somewhat intrusive. I think just providing updates in comments won't cut it.
Will anyone implement a system resembling the one described in https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2011-11-04 on Manifold by the end of 2025?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will Manifold be acquired by PolyMarket by end of 2030?
8% chance
Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?
82% chance
At the end of 2025, will Manifold think things have changed for the worse for us as a society?
51% chance
Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by the end of 2025?
34% chance
Will there be an official Manifold cryptocurrency by 2030?
14% chance
Will any Manifold markets created in 2023 be resolved in 2050 by the original author?
81% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2025?
15% chance
Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
14% chance
Will Manifold enact any of the ideas from "The Bazaar of Knowledge" concept for what the pivot could be, by end 2024?
16% chance
Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)
31% chance