Will Manifold be deplatformed by any of their payment processors or webhosting services over a refusal to moderate content?
Will Manifold be deplatformed by any of their payment processors or webhosting services over a refusal to moderate content?
➕
Plus
19
Ṁ564
2030
19%
chance

Recently the US government (among others) has discovered that it can circumvent inconvenient freedom of speech laws by pressuring private companies to kick people off their platform who say things the government doesn't like. Manifold currently has a pretty hands-off approach to content moderation, and I expect that if it gets more popular, there will be a lot of content here that various governments don't want said.

This market resolves YES if any payment processor, web hosting company, or other service that Manifold relies on chooses to deny them service due to Manifold's unwillingness to moderate certain content. Otherwise it resolves NO at the beginning of 2030.

Feb 8, 9:04pm: Will Manifold be deplatformed by any of their payment processors or webhosting services? → Will Manifold be deplatformed by any of their payment processors or webhosting services over a refusal to moderate content?

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
2y

I don't think this should count since it's not about any user-posted content on Manifold, but I'd be interested in hearing thoughts.

predictedNO 2y

@IsaacKing Well... the headline question just says "deplatformed" without specifying a reason, but the market description is clear that it has to be about content moderation.

I've always thought of the headline and description together as the full list of terms and conditions -- in which case indeed this mess with Stripe doesn't count.

I have the feeling the normies on here sometimes feel betrayed when the headline says one thing and the description says another. For example, because mobile-device Manifold play doesn't show the description by default. I don't really agree with this point of view but I recognize it's there...

On the other hand, I also model normies as caring less about the literal wording of a question than about implications and associations. So, if this question was "clearly supposed to be about" content moderation, then it should resolve NO even if the literal resolution is YES. I have even less sympathy with this viewpoint. I want a question to mean precisely what it says...

So: for me, I wouldn't count this Stripe thing because the question description is quite clear.

predictedYES 2y

@Boklam Yeah, this title was bad. I'm trying to get better about that.

predictedNO 2y

What payment processors and webhosting services does Manifold use, and in what countries do they have ties?

Forget about the US -- I can certainly think of some countries that would tell private companies to cut Manifold off, if they ever noticed what Manifold markets had to say about their country. If I found out that Manifold is using services based in [country name redacted] I'd bet this market waaaaay up.

2y

What if they threaten to deplatform Manifold unless Manifold changes their moderation policies, and Manifold complies?

2y

Then this resolves NO, since the deplatforming didn't happen.

1y
Comment hidden

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules