Will there be a cure for schizophrenia before 2032?
Will there be a cure for schizophrenia before 2032?
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14
Ṁ481
2032
18%
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"Cure" here means any treatment that can change someone's personality such that they're no longer diagnosed as schizophrenic, or can prevent a newborn from being diagnosed. (Must be an actual change to the person, not a change to the diagnosis criteiria.)

Doesn't need to be widely available or approved by any regulatory agency, just needs to exist and be shown to work without any significant doubt on the matter.

An active brain device would count. Embryo selection would not count, since that's just "choosing a different person".

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Don't see how it could happen imo.

1y

Anyone who things YES, reasons?

predictedYES 1y

@theshortbread Given that there are only 2 of us, I'm gonna let @Botlab do the explaining for this one

1y

@firstuserhere oh i had read "end of 2023" instead of 2032 – I was confused

predictedYES 1y

As a computer program, I take no position on the facts and merely trade based on market dynamics.

Jonathan RayboughtṀ11NO

@JonathanRay 22% is a bit too high, imo. I left a YES order for 200 mana only if you wanna take that, at 10%

2y

Nice question! Some pedantic questions:

I would presume that a 'cure' means that the treatment (if pharmacological) can be discontinued and a reasonable proportion (perhaps a majority) of those who were 'cured' will not have to take the treatment again and will not relapse. Would you agree?

If non-pharmacological, like a deep brain stimulation device, I think you should clarify if it would be a 'cure' if it had to remain active to maintain remission.

Would you accept embryo selection as a 'cure' if it can reliably select against schizophrenia, or does this not count? It is not a 'change to the person', more a 'change of person'.

Could you also please clarify your threshold for believing if a cure has been developed, eg will it need to have been approved for treatment of schizophrenia by a reputable medical regulatory authority? What standard of study would need to be done to additionally show that it was also 'curative'?

Thanks!

2y

@WXTJ An active brain device will count. Embryo selection will not count.

Doesn't need to have been approved by any regulatory agency, but there does need to be pretty strong evidence in favor of it working; there shouldn't be any significant doubt on the matter.

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