Must be largely undisputed. The most recent one as of market creation was South Sudan in 2011.
@MartinModrak With Bougainville recognized by both itself and Papua New Guinea, I'd be surprised if it didn't get ~widespread int'l recognition - but I suppose it could account for a gap of a few percent?
@MartinModrak Sure but then you're assuming near-zero probability of other new internationally recognized countries come into being, or becoming recognized.
I don't see why? If you Google "newest country", South Sudan is consistently the result. Wikipedia says that South Sudan is "the most recent sovereign state or country with widespread recognition as of 2023". Seems pretty straightforward to me.
If people really want a more specific guideline, how about going by whether it's listed here?
Would an independent Scotland count as new or is this already a recognized country (just part of UK)?
@NathanpmYoung Why? I don’t see how you could argue Scotland seceding from the U.K. wouldn’t count as a ‘new’ country (assuming its internationally recognised, which is likely if it follows from a referendum).
Well how internationally recognized do we mean?
For example, South Ossetia is recognized by Russia and Nicaragua. Is that enough to count? Or do we need all of the UN to recognize it. Or just a plurality of the UN?
@DavidSchwartz a simple definition could just leave it up to whether the US recognises the new country, or whether the UN gets a new member. I suppose those are decent alternative markets someone could create!
If Papua New Guinea and Bougainville both agree, I don’t see why it wouldn’t be internationally recognized, so this should be trading near or above the Bougainville market, right?
Besides states that resulted from the cia or catastrophic collapses of existing governments, I don't think any real countries have been created since 1965 or so.