Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030
Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030
➕
Plus
3
Ṁ170
2030
47%
chance

Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSS, FSB, ФСБ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Security_Service) - Russian security agency, successor to KGB.

Resolves YES when several reputable sources report that government or parliament of Russia(*) or US or UK or EU or UN officially recognizes division of FSB or whole FSB or whole Russia as a terrorist organization. The recognition could be a direct proclamation OR inclusion in the list of terrorist organization OR terrorist states.

Proclamations from other security agencies is not enogh to trigger a YES resolution, it should be political decision by government or parliment, not by some (high ranking) officer or expert.

Otherwise resolves to NO on January 1st 2030.

*Russia = Russian Federation or any internationally recognized state, that is official successor to Russian Federation. In case of multiple successor states, resolves to YES once 50% of all sucessor states declare official recognition.

E.g. such recognition by Ukraine would not trigger YES resolution, as well as recognition by ex-RF state that is not direct successor to RF (think: Chechnya or Saha).

However, recognition by ex-RF "Moskovia" would trigger YES resolution, in case "Moskovia" proclaims itself as successor to RF and there are no other successor states OR there is only 2 successor states ("Moskovia" counts as 50% then).

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
4mo

Recognizing the FSB as a terrorist organization requires some form of implementation. Same reason there's reticence about recognizing the Iranian revolutionary guard corps as a terrorist organization. There's complexities doing this for state actors.

7mo

Context:
The FSB has been criticised for corruption, human rights violations and secret police activities. Some Kremlin critics such as Alexander Litvinenko have claimed that the FSB is engaged in suppression of internal dissent; Litvinenko died in 2006 as a result of polonium poisoning.[75] Litvinenko, along with a series of other authors such as Yury Felshtinsky, David Satter, Boris Kagarlitsky, Vladimir Pribylovsky, Mikhail Trepashkin, have claimed that the 1999 apartment bombings in Moscow and other Russian cities were a false flag attack coordinated by the FSB in order to win public support for a new full-scale war in Chechnya and boost former FSB director and then prime minister Vladimir Putin's popularity in the lead-up to parliamentary elections and presidential transfer of power.[76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87] The FSB has been further criticized by some for failure to bring Islamist terrorism in Russia under control.[88]

An investigation by Bellingcat and The Insider implicated FSB agents in the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in August 2020, where he became ill during a flight.[106][107]

It was reported that during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, FSB officers carried out filtration activities in Mariupol, which were accompanied by searches, interrogations, forced deportations to Russia, beatings and torture.[108]

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules