Casualties includes injuries. Rules <> Title.

@MaybeNotDepends I'd suggest editing the title to reflect the rules or vice versa.

@MaybeNotDepends what do you suggest? Will this suffice? How many casualties (meaning deaths as a direct result of the event) will the LA times report have resulted from the Los Angeles area fires that began January 7th 2025?

does this resolve to the reported number at market close?

@summer_of_bliss it will be extended if the fires are still burning or a final number hasn’t been reached do to still missing persons or investigation for fatalities not yet completed.

OMG I can’t read oops

https://www.latimes.com/california/newsletter/2025-01-18/the-death-toll-continues-to-rise-in-palisades-and-eaton-fires-here-are-some-victims-stories-essential-california

@SofyaLebedeva lol no

Now up to 24. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-01-12/death-toll-palisades-eaton-fires-rises

16 deaths currently reported

https://www.latimes.com/california/live/2025-01-10/fire-los-angeles-california-eaton-palisades-updates

"Casualties" includes deaths and injuries, right? I haven't seen a comprehensive injuries number, but suspect it will be higher than deaths.

@Mactuary I think most people have interpreted casualties as deaths. The options would be much higher if we included non-lethal injuries. In this case casualties means deaths which the LA times has at this moment listed as 10.

Are we counting any articles from the LA Times reporting on excess deaths due to smoke, air quality? I don’t think those numbers will come out that quickly.

@Laya not counting any articles from the LA Times reporting on excess deaths due to smoke, air quality.

Sadly we know that there are 5 confirmed deaths and likely more to come. Should I resolve 0 and 1-3? If so, how do I do this and not effect the rest of the choices? Or is it best to wait to resolve all at once when the disaster has ended and been fully reported on?

@JALALPOEHLMAN I think you may have accidentally resolved the whole market?

@JamesBabcock I think I may have but I unresolved it quickly. It’s back up right?

@JALALPOEHLMAN to clarify, in dependent MC, where the probability sums to one, no options can end early

@Ziddletwix thank you

?

I pushed 4-8 down quite a bit. Official count is at 5, hasn't yet been time to search, people will die of injuries. Cnn quotes that suggest known likely deaths that can't be reached yet.

Horrible situation.

This is "only one resolves yes", correct?

@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso yup. you can confirm by clicking the three dots in the top right to see more info