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Who will win the Russia-Ukraine War?
Plus
27
Ṁ13732030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
63%
Stalemate
26%
Russia
11%
Ukraine
Will Resolve by 2030, or sooner if it becomes clear that one side has achieved the victory conditions.
Resolves Ukraine if Ukraine manages to retake and defend the majority of lands captured by Russia as of December 2023.
Resolves Russia if Russia manages to capture and defend half of all pre-war Ukrainian land.
Resolves Stalemate if neither of these conditions occur by 2030.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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