When will Bitcoin market cap exceed Gold market cap?
When will Bitcoin market cap exceed Gold market cap?
Basic
8
Ṁ13222030
0.7%
2023-2024
5%
2025
19%
2026
16%
2027
8%
2028
8%
2029
42%
Later/Never
Gold marketcap = gold price * total gold ever mined
Resolves to the first time that bitcoin's market cap exceeds gold's
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At the current price of $66.44 per gram, this is a market cap of $13.878T.
CoinMarketCap has Bitcoin market cap currently around $831B.
56% chance of 16x BTC price within 4 years makes it a damn good investment even if it might go to zero in all the other timelines. That puts a lower bound of 73% on E(CAGR) if you limit sell your bitcoins at the target price.
I’m kinda surprised manifold is so btc maxi that it’s expecting 85% chance of BTC/gold flippening by 2029. That’s even higher than me.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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