The Israel-Hamas hostage deal is structured in 3 phases. Phase 1 lasts for 42 days and if implemented fully will see 33 hostages released. Negotiations for Phase 2, to free the remaining hostages, are supposed to begin 16 days after the beginning of Phase 1. Some members of the Israeli governing coalition have called to resume the war after Phase 1.
This question resolves YES if the war does not resume and at least 1 Israeli hostage is released as part of Phase 2. It resolves NO if the ceasefire collapses during or after Phase 1 and fighting resumes. If negotations continue inconclusively after Phase 1 (with neither fighting not hostage releases), the market will be extended until there is a resolution, and could resolve N/A in a particularly ambiguous case.
Resolution will be based on reputable news souces and US/Israeli government/Hamas official statements
1,000
3.00Trump is serious about phase 2 but israel seems to be trying to sabotage again. Like an israeli sniper killing a young Palestinian child despite the ceasefire:
source 1 - https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01/20/world/israel-hamas-cease-fire#reports-of-sporadic-violence-cast-a-shadow-over-the-gaza-cease-fire
source 2 with video (graphic) - https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2025/1/20/palestinian-child-killed-by-israeli-sniper-despite-ceasefire
source 3 - https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/24/middleeast/gaza-israel-dead-ceasefire-child-intl/index.html
@Ammar
Just for the context: Hamas did not release Arbel Yahud according to the agreement (they preferred to release the soldiers first, for the show), which caused Israel to limit going north for the refugees. The Gazan tried anyway, despite warning, and those who got too close got shot.