Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?
Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?
➕
Plus
23
Ṁ6771
Dec 31
93%
Falcon Heavy
91%
Starship
90%
Long March 5
87%
LVM3
74%
Zhuque 2
66%
Nuri
53%
Ariane 64
49%
Gilmour Space Eris
44%
Tianlong 3
40%
Isar Spectrum
38%
Proton M
37%
Long March 12A
37%
Zhuque 3
36%
Pallas 1
35%
Chollima 1
35%
Vikram 1
34%
RFA One
31%
Kairos
30%
Qased
29%
Ceres-2

Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.

Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2024 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)

*Starship near-orbits don't count

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answered1mo
H3
opened a Ṁ500 H3 YES at 98% order21d
1mo

Looks like the Long March 12A may have had a failed hop test

answered1mo
Long March 5
bought Ṁ100 Long March 5 YES

@JoshuaWilkes does the 5B count or does it have to be strictly the 5?

And likewise for Zhuque 2 does the 2E count or just the 2?

bought Ṁ34 New Glenn YES1mo

New Glenn resolves Yes

1mo

LVM3 has a mission planned for Q1 according to Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LVM3_launches#Future_missions

Presumably Orbex Prime, RFA One, and ISAR Spectrum should each individually be lower than the Yes option on https://manifold.markets/Multicore/will-a-new-european-launch-provider

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