Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?
Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?
Plus
23
Ṁ6771Dec 31
93%
Falcon Heavy
91%
Starship
90%
Long March 5
87%
LVM3
74%
Zhuque 2
66%
Nuri
53%
Ariane 64
49%
Gilmour Space Eris
44%
Tianlong 3
40%
Isar Spectrum
38%
Proton M
37%
Long March 12A
37%
Zhuque 3
36%
Pallas 1
35%
Chollima 1
35%
Vikram 1
34%
RFA One
31%
Kairos
30%
Qased
29%
Ceres-2
Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.
Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2024 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)
*Starship near-orbits don't count
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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answered1mo
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answered1mo
Long March 5
bought Ṁ100 Long March 5 YES
@JoshuaWilkes does the 5B count or does it have to be strictly the 5?
And likewise for Zhuque 2 does the 2E count or just the 2?
LVM3 has a mission planned for Q1 according to Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LVM3_launches#Future_missions
Presumably Orbex Prime, RFA One, and ISAR Spectrum should each individually be lower than the Yes option on https://manifold.markets/Multicore/will-a-new-european-launch-provider
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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