Which will be the first 6th generation fighter to enter service with a country's military?
Which will be the first 6th generation fighter to enter service with a country's military?
Basic
5
Ṁ378
2040
19%
NGAD (USAF)
17%
F/A-XX (USN)
12%
GCAP
0%
FCAS
21%
SAC J-50 (provisional name)
0%
PAK DP
16%
CAC J-36 (provisional name)
16%
Other

Sixth generation fighters are the next generation of fighter aircraft, currently in development by several nations. These fighters are expected to have advanced capabilities such as artificial intelligence, improved sensors, and stealth capabilities, enabling them to operate in highly contested airspace. Some of the major sixth generation fighter projects include the United States' Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) programs, which are being developed by both Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) being developed by Italy, Japan and the UK, the European Future Combat Air System (FCAS) being developed by France, Germany and Spain, and the Russian PAK DP. These fighters are expected to become the backbone of air power for the coming decades, providing unparalleled capabilities for their respective countries.

Resolves when an aircraft is reported as in service by mainstream media, and this report isn't contested by other reports.

Chinese and other projects can be added once they are announced. Please don't create generic 'country' options.

Added Chinese programmes: J-36 seen over Chengdu and J-50 seen over Shenyang. Neither of these names are confirmed and the existence of these planes is barely officially acknowledged.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1mo

Added Chinese programmes: J-36 seen over Chengdu and J-50 seen over Shenyang. Neither of these names are confirmed and the existence of these planes is barely officially acknowledged

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules