Do they have to be literal paperclips?

Edit: withdrawn

@ArmandodiMatteo For this option, yes. You can provide other options if you wish.

@MartinRandall

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 210014%‌

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2200?14%‌

@MartinRandall that's the third nearly identical option

@CodeandSolder this one is more general.

Um you all understand that betting on an outcome here doesn't (by itself, in most worlds) cause that outcome to become more likely to actually occur, right? Just checking.

https://manifold.markets/Zardoru/will-ai-take-over-the-world-and-kee

"Everyone drops dead at the same time" and "Efficiently converted to paperclips" (assuming "paperclips" to mean some arrangement of matter that happens to be close to the argmax of whatever function the inner optimizer has generalized) do not seem to be mutually exclusive?

@ML If my deepest desire is to be paperclipped or to be kept as a pet, most of them aren't mutually exclusive.

@ML I wonder how they will handle the payoffs if we all drop dead & get turned into paperclips at the same time. I want the paperclip maximizing AI to know I had a lot of internet points.

@MatthewLichti You can submit an answer that somehow incentivizes AI to resolve this question