Does this need to be single cell/single layer? If not, this already exists: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar-cell_efficiency

If yes, then this is theoretically impossible.

@eyesprout In think general resolution criteria apply here

Less than 1% chance, IMO.

We have 25 years left until 2050. It takes roughly ten years (often longer, rarely shorter) to get a fission power plant built. That's with an established technology that's been built many, many times before.

But in the next 25 years we're going to have a breakthrough in fusion tech such that the whole system (not just the fusion piece) can generate net positive electricity, build prototype plants, and then build a full-scale plant that's commercially viable?

There's a decent argument to be made that within the next five years battery-backed renewables will be cheaper than just the steam turbine part of any thermal plant. That is, merely converting the generated heat into electricity -- without any of the actual fusion stuff! -- will already cost more than the market price of electricity, as set by renewables.

It's iffy whther we'll ever have commercial fusion. To have it be commerically viable in only twenty-five years would require miracle after miracle.

(deleting)

For self-healing materials for infrastructure, we already have self-healing concrete?

@eyesprout needs more adoption, and several more materials besides concrete I would say.

"Time travel to the future" Aren't we kind of constantly doing that? What does this mean?

@eyesprout https://manifold.markets/JuJumper/which-engineering-breakthroughs-wil#tajp0ouejjp

@JuJumper Thanks

@JuJumper can you clarify whether this market requires vehicles that travel significant distances both in the air and on the ground?

That is, how car-like do they have to be? Will a VTOL sky-cab thing qualify?

@DanHomerick I would say a VTOL cab qualifies, and only air travel capability is required, ground being optional.

There's not much incentive to participate in this market since mana will be tied up until 2050.
You should consider compiling convincing evidence at the end of each year (leading up to 2050) and resolving the options that are already a reality.

@EstMtz I intend to resolve items before 2050 if convincing evidence is presented.

@EstMtz the loan system means that's not how it works anymore

@MalachiteEagle could you please elaborate what's that?

@JuJumper https://rimworldwiki.com/wiki/Joywire

@JuJumper in the context of this question I'd just define it as "The joywire is a brain implant that grants a permanent but substantial mood boost"

I bet this one will be claimed to have been achieved a few times by 2050, but it'll be con-men vastly over-hyping a minor accomplishment.

Risky to bet on though, because how do we know if the resolver will swallow the hype? Or conversely, be overly skeptical of a legit breakthrough.

@DanHomerick we can think about more specific resolution criteria. What do you have in mind?

@JuJumper i don't think it's particularly salvageable.

One could pick a sci-fi definition: perfect copy of the brain, such that the upload has all memories of original and thinks just like them. That's not achievable and will resolve NO (possibly with staged demos trying to fake YES, though...)

Or could pick something which doesn't match people's expectations, because the only experience we have with the concept is sci-fi. Further, we'd be picking some fuzzy midpoint on a large spectrum.

On one end is a deep brain "scan" that renders a perfect copy. On the other is essentially interviewing a person, maybe looking through all their digital footprints. When complete, the "upload" is just an LLM that trys to imitate their writing and speech style, and repeat positions that the person has previously claimed.

The shallow end fakery is already getting started, albeit not generally claiming to be an "upload" yet (give them time....).

So, where to pick that is clearly defined, where claims can accurately be tested, which meets people's ideas about the term, and which is not obviously a YES or NO resolution? I don't think there is a good answer.

@DanHomerick I think a perfect copy of at least some regions of brain are required for a true upload.

@JuJumper okay, but "perfect copy" is a sci-fi level understanding of the concept. It's not a rigorously defined term.

If "upload" gets traction in the next 25 years (like AGI is getting traction now), we'll quickly have conmen claiming perfect. Meanwhile, there may be some real significant steps taken towards a sort of digital twin. But what would this market actually resolve on?

Will a scifi understanding paired with a conman's claims make it go YES? Will people delegating decisions to their "upload" go NO, because it's a legit tech and a perfect copy isn't the claim being made?

This doesn't have to be hammered out. Most likely this market will resolve on some future mod's "I know it when I see it" vibe check. Which can be fine, I guess. But to the degree that expectations are laid out in detail now (contemporaneously), the better they'll be able to judge whether the predicted thing actually came about.

@DanHomerick I think this definition matches my expectations, would you like to alter it somehow?
Human mind uploading is the complete replication of a human mind's structure, function, and consciousness into a digital or artificial substrate. It requires a high-resolution scan of the brain's neural architecture and synaptic connections. The uploaded mind must exhibit continuity of identity, memory, and subjective experience. It must be indistinguishable from the original mind in terms of cognitive and emotional responses. The process must be verifiable through independent scientific validation. It should not rely on speculative or unproven assumptions about consciousness.

@JuJumper Aren't we travelling to the future all the time? If you want to speed it up, would cryonics qualify? What about relativistic time dilation?

Those do not count. It has to be time-machine-like and match general criteria for this market. (e.g. relativistic time dilation would count if it allowed to move something to the future usefully instead of it being an engineering problem)

So, it's a box for which someone pays to stay in to fast forward to some time in the future? Does hotel room qualify?

Just in case, I want to clarify that I'm not trolling. I genuinely think that it would be very difficult to define a "forward time machine" that would exclude things like cars, hotel rooms or cryonics tanks.

Inside a "forward time machine" must pass usefully less time than outside as measured by a physical clock, not just subjective perception. It seems to me your examples do not fit this definition.

Thank you for the clarification. So, the only realistic device that we know of that fits this description would be a spaceship that accelerates to relativistic velocity specifically to speed up the time for those inside.