Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?
Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?
Basic
9
Ṁ4722040
49%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
18% chance
Will Russia Exist in 2040?
92% chance
Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?
27% chance
Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2030?
19% chance
Will a territory with over 10 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?
2% chance
Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026?
17% chance
Will a territory with over 1 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?
3% chance
Will Russia officially recognize Crimea, Donetsk, or Luhansk as part of Ukraine before 2030?
22% chance
Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030
18% chance
Will Chechenya be a sovereign state before 2040?
19% chance