Will Anthony Albanese be the Prime Minister of Australia at the end of 2025?
Will Anthony Albanese be the Prime Minister of Australia at the end of 2025?
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The next general election legally has to occur before or during 2025.
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Australians tend to re-elect governments for at least one term. The last time a federal government only lasted one term was 1931.
Australian voters are good at distinguishing between their support for governments versus the referendums they put forward. Past Australian PMs (e.g. Hawke) have lost referendums without much effect on their overall support.
Even as polling for the Voice has fallen, support for Labor overall is pretty stable.
Head-to-head, Albanese is more popular than Dutton.
Far less leadership tensions compared to recent past Australian governments.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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