2024 Recap
2024 Recap
➕
Plus
20
Ṁ3187
Dec 31
88%
Sweden joins NATO
88%
Artificial Intelligence Act in EU
75%
UN GA granting Palestine the right to be seated
61%
Russia and North Korea have signed a mutual war assistance pact
61%
Lai Ching-te becoming president of Taiwan
59%
Ukraine recieves F-16
54%
Ismail Abd al-Salam Haniyeh assasination
52%
UAE becoming BRICS member
50%
EU boycott Hungary’s foreign affairs summit
50%
CrowdStrike update breaks Windows
44%
Commercial Nova-C lander on the Moon
28%
ChatGPT 4o
18%
Putin re-election
16%
2nd August prisoners exchange
11%
Navalny's death
5%
Assasination attempt on Trump

At the end of the year 12 options with the highest % will resolve YES.

Bet up those that had or will have the most impact, bet down less significant ones.

Add option with the event you think was one of the twelve most important for the world this year.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
sold Ṁ49 Sweden joins NATO YES2mo

This market is whale bait. Should be resolved via poll or by # of yes positions instead of percentage at close. Caveat emptor.

Ismail Abd al-Salam Haniyeh assasination
bought Ṁ50 Ismail Abd al-Salam ... YES6mo

This event alone could spark a whole region-war.

I do not see how assasination attempt will become significant and why people bet it up to second place. Trump was winning anyway, and it does not look like the attempt will result in any new policy or actions, which would not happen otherwise.

7mo

What if there are only 12 or fewer options by market end?

7mo

I will prevent that by adding events as the year progresses, and make sure there are at least 24 events.

If for any reason I am not present on Manifold and there are less than 24 options at the closure, then here is a message to mods:

Resolve half (rounded down) of the options to Yes.

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