At the end of the year 12 options with the highest % will resolve YES.
Bet up those that had or will have the most impact, bet down less significant ones.
Add option with the event you think was one of the twelve most important for the world this year.
1,000
3.00This market is whale bait. Should be resolved via poll or by # of yes positions instead of percentage at close. Caveat emptor.
I do not see how assasination attempt will become significant and why people bet it up to second place. Trump was winning anyway, and it does not look like the attempt will result in any new policy or actions, which would not happen otherwise.
I will prevent that by adding events as the year progresses, and make sure there are at least 24 events.
If for any reason I am not present on Manifold and there are less than 24 options at the closure, then here is a message to mods:
Resolve half (rounded down) of the options to Yes.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00