Will we see a POTUS wielding a chainsaw over his head before EOY 2050?
Will we see a POTUS wielding a chainsaw over his head before EOY 2050?
➕
Plus
40
Ṁ1142
2050
33%
chance

This is a vibebased market.

It could involve a real chainsaw or a replica. It doesn't have to be functional. This market will resolve as YES if a current POTUS does it. It doesn't matter if it's for a political statement or if the POTUS is a former logger or does it for fun. A mother or father playing with his child and a toy chainsaw would not resolve this market. Former presidents don't count.

The relevant timezone is EST.

I. e. this photo [edit: market] would resolve the market YES, if it was Biden and not Milei:

#🇺🇸 US Politics
#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
12d

Well Musk seems to have...

1y

Starting when? For sure Biden and Trump are too old and unfit to wield a chainsaw above their head until 2050. Andrew Yang could do it

1y

@VAPOR by market creation, yesterday.

tbh, I can imagine Trump doing that

1y

@Lion you really think he could keep it over his head until 2050? Like life extension? He is powerful 🇺🇸

1y

@VAPOR 🤣 rule no. 1 on Manifold: If people can find any stupid interpretation of a question, they'll find a stupid interpretation

1y

@Lion oh you mean by EOY 2025, not until

1y

@VAPOR By EOY 2050

1y

@Bayesian I thought it was a little high at 25%

1y

@VAPOR I meant before. Thanks for correcting. I wasn't paying attention.

'By: Usually interpreted as synonymous with "before". Sometimes people use it when they mean "at the end of this period"; this usage is best'avoided.' https://manifoldcommunity.miraheze.org/wiki/Glossary

@Lion it said "until" 2050 though, before works fine though

I want to believe (but tbh it's way more Libertarian vibes)

@shankypanky Don't stop believing in a Libertarian president ... okay, i see my mistake 🤣

1y

I hope this happens

1y

@Rucker 100% ❤

1y
Comment hidden

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules