Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025?
Plus
19
Ṁ3984Dec 31
85%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
ARC is a general-purpose AI eval designed to test intelligence as opposed to memorization. https://arcprize.org/arc
This market resolves to Yes if there are public demonstrations of general-purpose base models from OpenAI, Anthropic or Deepmind that solve at least 50% of the ARC questions before 2026.
(note that this is separate from winning the arc price, which requires only using open-source models)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
LLM Hallucination: Will an LLM score >90% on SimpleQA before 2026?
60% chance
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
67% chance
Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?
66% chance
What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?
55% chance
Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on IMO before 2026?
65% chance
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?
58% chance
Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?
65% chance
6 months from now will I judge that LLMs had already peaked by Nov 2024?
16% chance
Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?
49% chance