The Lefts seem to get some sentiment. Let's see next week if Green-Red-Red might become an option. One can dream...

@LudwigBald how will this resolve in case of a minority government? Only to the parties that form the government, or also to the parties that vote for it? (apparently the latter is the case for the metaculus question)

@dp9000 I will resolve only to the parties that actually form the government. I have added the option "Union alone". Go place your bets as appropriate!

@LudwigBald What about a CDU/CSU minority government which

a) includes ministers who aren't party members (think part "Expertenregierung")

b) includes ministers from other parties, but there is no official coalition

Which of those will resolve "Union alone" or "other"? (I know this is highly unlikely, but politica seems to keep moving towards ever weirder outcomes)

Three parties (BSW, FDP, Linke) are at roughly the 5% mark. It could depend on them if Union-SPD has a majority.

A party needs either 5+% of the votes or win 3+ districts to get into the parliament. If they fail both, their votes are ignored.

A clone of this question just opened on Metaculus.

Added it to the dashboard.

Arbitrage with /AlexbGoode/which-parties-will-form-the-next-ge