Will there be a VR/AR bubble by 2029?
Will there be a VR/AR bubble by 2029?
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7
Ṁ2202029
44%
chance
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I will use my judgement to determine the following criteria.
Meta valuation is over $1T
IPOs of AR/VR companies are happening
Companies' stocks are soaring 20%+ because they announced something AR/VR related
There is an AR/VR decacorn (private startup with more than $10B valuation)
The specialized press reports that venture capitalists are hiring VR/AR focused specialists and/or making dedicated AR/VR funds
There are famous investors and market commentators calling AR/VR a bubble
Sell-side analysts are writing reports that companies, including Apple, could have $100B+ in AR/VR market capitalization
I will settle to YES if at least 4 of the conditions above are met.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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