Released = available to some portion of the public (including a subset of subscribers or a limited number of API developers from members of the public). Released only for safety testing does not count.
New model = Either announced by the company as a new model, is clear from numbering/naming it is a distinct model, or able to be selected from some sort of menu as a distinct model. Something like "o1 extra mini" would count as while it is part of o1 it can be considered a distinct model in this market.
Please note that any model which came out this month prior to market creation will not count (a new model from the company should come out for the answer to resolve to yes). For example Nvidia's recently released AI called Cosmos will not count towards this market.
Must be released before January 31st 11:59pm PST. If it is announced but not yet released to any members of the public it will not count.
*OpenAI (other) refers to any model that is not their new flagship model (eg. gpt 5), o3, or o3-mini, a video generator, or an image generator. It could be a derivative of another language model or some other type of model such as a voice generator.
**Anthropic flagship language model refers to a model comparable to claude 3.5 or gpt-4o that should outperform claude 3.5 sonnet on a majority of performance benchmarks. This should not be a reasoning model.
***Anthropic reasoning model refers to a model that is not considered their everyday task model and is akin to what OpenAI's O1 is to gpt-4o.
****Anthropic (any other) refers to any model that is not a reasoning model nor their new flagship model. For example, it could be a derivative of an existing language model or a different type of AI model entirely.
Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:
A model relaunched as Gemini 2 Pro with any small updates will count as a new model.
If a model is only renamed to Gemini 2 Pro without any updates, it will not count.
Update 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A new model created by a startup derived from a different company's model will not count.
If one of the listed companies pays or collaborates with a startup to create a new model for them, it will probably count, assuming conditions are met such as partial ownership.
1,000
3.00
@JeremiahEngland I could be wrong, but I suspect this tweet is extrapolating from Sam Altman's tweet that said they would launch in "~a couple of weeks", which never seemed like an actual deadline to me. I don't see any sign that she has actual insider info.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I posted this because she said someone at OpenAI retweeted it. That individual commented on her post saying he didn't mean his retweet to be interpreted as affirmation of the release date.
I agree she doesn't have any insider info. And that what I shared here is probably nothing to update this market on.
I will make this same market for February soon. I will look to add Deepseek and maybe some option for "dark horse flagship".
Before I do, I would love to hear any feedback!
(other companies/models to add, improved clarification, models you feel are listed here that no one cares about and could be removed to improve liquidity efficiency, etc.)
@SirSalty Something to note might be that o3-mini got ~3-5x the number of traders as the other options, seems to be because there was already speculation over a possible release
@MingCat yeah, though I think anything that releases in January would have been already planned to do so
XAI Grok 3 was briefly released.
https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/27/grok-3-seemingly-went-live-for-some-users/
Microsoft released MatterGen, January 16
@Frankas Great catch! It's open-source, it's explicitly described as a generative model, and it's by Microsoft. It was released January 16th, after this market was created. I can't see any reason it wouldn't count!
https://github.com/NVlabs/EAGLE/commit/f406378d6326e06a4fa95955142588bae059ada3
Nvidia eagle2 was released
https://huggingface.co/collections/nvidia/eagle-2-6764ba887fa1ef387f7df067 @Manifold they don't have much in terms of official announcements that i can find but this is a new model they released, eg see
