Who will serve in Donald Trump's cabinet in his first year?
➕
Plus
130
Ṁ39k
2026
22%
Sam Brown
99%
Brooke Rollins
97%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
7%
Mike Lindell
8%
Eric Adams
98.6%
Linda McMahon
9%
Mike Flynn
11%
Garret Graves
0.9%
Matt Gaetz
10%
Dr. Joseph Ladapo
11%
Brandon Williams
7%
Mike Huckabee
89%
Kash Patel
9%
Bobby Jindal
13%
Ken Paxton
9%
Byron Daniels
99%
Lee Zeldin
61%
Tom Homan
9%
Rick Scott
93%
Mike Waltz

Includes all cabinet-level and department-level positions, including ones created within his first 365 days. To resolve yes, a person must SERVE as a cabinet position - a nomination is insufficient to resolve an answer to YES. Acting secretaries count.

The positions that would resolve to YES are as follows:

The heads of the executive departments

  • Vice President (please don't submit this one)

  • Secretary of State

  • Secretary of the Treasury

  • Secretary of Defense

  • Attorney General

  • Secretary of the Interior

  • Secretary of Agriculture

  • Secretary of Commerce

  • Secretary of Labor

  • Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS)

  • Seecretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)

  • Secretary of Transportation

  • Secretary of Energy

  • Secretary of Education

  • Secretary of Veterans Affairs (VA)

  • Secretary of Homeland Security

Cabinet-level officials

  • Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

  • Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)

  • Director of National Intelligence

  • Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

  • Trade Representative

  • Ambassador to the United Nations

  • Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA)

  • Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA)

  • Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP)

  • White House Chief of Staff

As well as

  • Any other cabinet position created through an act of Congress

  • Any other position that the President appoints the status of Cabinet-rank

Note: The President is allowed to designate a position to be a member of the cabinet. In the unlikely scenario where a position is removed from being cabinet-rank before it is filled, it'll resolve NO.

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bought Ṁ894 YES

they confirmed Duffy but no one even cared enough about him to put him on here lmfao

Anyway, the Senate will have the confirmation hearings for both of the Real Contentious Picks - Tulsi and RFK - on Wednesday and Thursday this week. Not certain on when they'll hold the vote to confirm, but I'm expecting at least one to be confirmed before the weekend's over.

John Ratcliffe has been confirmed. They're due to vote on Hegseth later today, at around 9 PM eastern. Noem and Bessent will probably be confirmed sometime next week.

Rubio has been confirmed. No one listed is serving in an acting role yet, as per https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/designation-of-acting-leaders/

Check out this market to bet on what Trump will say in Year 1 https://manifold.markets/Houston2025/what-words-or-phrases-will-trump-sa

I've written up all of the positions which would resolve to YES in the description!

@Marnix Forgive me if this has been specified elsewhere, but US Ambassador to the United Nations counts as being in the Cabinet?

@Kraalnaxx Yep! I'm just gonna go ahead and write up all the ones that count and put those in the description, I think lmao

sold Ṁ88 NO

@shankypanky what exactly is a department-level position and does national security advisor count?

@Marnix ☝️

@Fay42 Department-level ones are just the obvious ones — DOT, DOJ, HHS, HUD, etc.

Cabinet-level are the other ones - EPA admin, Director of National Intelligence, Chief of Staff, etc.

National Security Advisor does not currently count. it did for a time (Jimmy Carter made it cabinet level, I believe), but hasn't since 1981. It could be elevated again if Trump wants, but he hasn't given any indication he would.

I've been working off of this Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Marnix we might be looking at our first nomination that fails here

@MonaSalama looks like you added this twice - I changed it to someone else

@Marnix Ah ok. I didn’t know if it went thru. Thanks

bought Ṁ300 YES

@Marnix Do you consider adding questions based on the news to be a problem?

@Kraalnaxx Not particularly - at this point, there's still shortlists, and once someone's announced there's still the (admittedly slim) chance that whatever person gets picked doesn't ever get to serve, either because the Senate refuses to confirm them or they suddenly die or something.

Does “cabinet-level and department-level positions” include or exclude “Cabinet-level officials”?

@BlueDragon Cabinet-level officials are included!

We're already getting a few picks - Susie Wilds as Chief of Staff, and according to FT he's likely to give Linda McMahon secretary of commerce. Jared Kushner also stated that won't take an admin position.

Title and description have also been changed slightly, to reflect the fact that Trump has been elected, and that answers will not resolve yes until the person actually serves!

reposted

Trump has won a second term. Now what?

@Marnix We hope for a Mars-sized planetoid to collide with the Earth, ending all life swiftly and painlessly. The most humane outcome.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@PlasmaBallin But do you think the planetoid will be in the cabinet proper or just a senior advisor role

bought Ṁ20 NO

In the last Trump administration Stephen Miller was a Senior Advisor to the President, not the head of a department.

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