Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?
Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?
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This question resolves to YES if China surpasses the United States before January 1st 2040 Eastern Time on ALL three of the following metrics:
1. Nominal GDP per the International Monetary Fund. If the IMF ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion.
2. Military expenditures per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. If the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion.
3. The Nature Index. If this index is discontinued, then International Science Ranking takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves to N/A.
Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.
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Interesting Question. Due to the long timeframe deep background effects will drown out short term changes in political leadership and policies. My expectation is that china will be more able and hungry to position itself strategically. Speed up of societal narrative conflict by social media is more directly adressed in China while the US and Europe follow with lots of internal conflict but without better solutions. This might change if western societies stumble upon a better solution and are capable to implement it (doubt here). Caveat is age of population, but we will see.
My expectation of No is based on me expecting that they will continue to have repressive policies which promote 'brain drain'. Their best intellectual talent has a high probability of using that talent to leave for other countries.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
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