In case of a war with Iran before 2050, will Saudi Arabia runs out of water for its population?
In case of a war with Iran before 2050, will Saudi Arabia runs out of water for its population?
Basic
8
Ṁ1772050
68%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolve to NAN if there are no war between Saudi Arabia and Iran before 2050.
Running out of water meaning: 1 000 or more people in Saudi Arabia die from lack of water in a single month.
The war assumes an official declaration of war.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will the US be at war with Iran before the end of 2025
16% chance
Will Iran launch a significant drone attack on Saudi Arabia before 2025?
2% chance
Will Iran launch a significant drone attack on a Saudi embassy or consulate before 2025?
2% chance
Will there be a so-called "nuclear Saudi Arabia" by 2050?
16% chance
Will Iran attack Saudi Arabia before 2026?
22% chance
Will there be a civil war in Saudi Arabia with more than 100 000 deaths before 2050?
19% chance
Will Saudi Arabia obtain nuclear weapon(s) by 2035?
36% chance
Will Saudi Arabia have nuclear weapons by 2030?
15% chance
Will Saudi Arabia acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
20% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2050?
55% chance