Will Great Britain and Northern Ireland abolish its monarchy before 2030?
Will Great Britain and Northern Ireland abolish its monarchy before 2030?
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This market resolves Yes if the state known as or formally known as the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland abolishes its monarchy and becomes a republic before 0:00 1 January 2030. Whether other Commonwealth countries continue to have monarchs from the line of Queen Elizabeth II is irrelevant. Should any constituent country of the UK leave the union before this point, the question refers only to the rump state rather than to the seceding state. The question will resolve ambiguously should the successor state of the current UK become impossible to clearly identify.
#UK #Politics
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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