Which of the following top-20-GDP countries will be next to have an acting head of state assassinated?
Which of the following top-20-GDP countries will be next to have an acting head of state assassinated?
Basic
18
Ṁ270
2050
1.8%
United States of America
0.9%
China
1.4%
Japan
1.4%
Germany
2%
India
1.4%
United Kingdom
1.4%
France
1.4%
Canada
11%
Russia
4%
Italy
12%
Iran
20%
Brazil
5%
South Korea
1.4%
Australia
20%
Mexico
1.4%
Spain
1.9%
Indonesia
3%
Saudi Arabia
6%
Netherlands
1.9%
Turkey

Listed are the countries with the twenty largest nominal GDPs as of Dec 18th, 2022.

"Constitutional monarchs" and other nominal heads of states do not count; the person has to hold the most politically powerful position in that country. I will decide which political position this is in the comment section if prompted and add it to the description; for most countries it should be obvious.

Close date updated to 2050-01-01 12:00 am

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
2y

Why is NL so high

2y

I really don't think russia has a >20% chance over the field, or more than Iran.

2y

Did you mean to close this on Dec 25?

2y

@Yev No.

2y

@DeanValentine Is there any way I can fix that?

2y

@DeanValentine There's an edit button next to the close date.

2y

@Yev That I can still access? Where?

2y

@DeanValentine Found it. Thanks.

2y

Wish I could subsidize this

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules