The first started on Tuesday Jan 7th and devastated Malibu, Pacific Palisades, parts of Pasadena and several other communities.
https://deepnewz.com/natural-disasters
As of Wednesday afternoon, the fire are "0% contained" and there are four major fires burning across the Los Angeles area.
We will create questions here about the fires. When will they be contained? What cities will be evacuated? When will air quality return to "normal"?
Please suggest good questions in the comments.
If there is a similar Polymarket question -- we will follow their resolution criteria, whenever possible. If not we will use common sense and logic.
I will be betting these markets.
All times will be midnight Pacific. So "by Feb 1st" means this resolves as soon as it is Feb 1st (midnight) in California.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
All fires part of yesterdays cohort are considered when determining the outcome.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
Any airport with airline traffic is considered a major LA area airport, including:
Burbank
LAX
John Wayne
Ontario
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
All current fires (four/five) are part of this market.
Any continuation of these fires is included in the market.
Fires that die down and start again after a pause are considered new fires and are not part of this market.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will follow Polymarket rules whenever appropriate.
Definition of "fire containment" as per Polymarket's definition.
Additional information can be found at California Fire Agency.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST): - Long Beach is considered a major airport and more major than Ontario. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Current Fire Count: There are five fires in Los Angeles and one in Riverside.
Containment Status: Only one fire is partially contained (40%); the others are 0% contained.
New Fire Consideration: The "Sunset" Fire in West Hollywood will be included in this market only if it is reclassified as part of the existing fires. If not reclassified, it will clear the "any new fires in Los Angeles" market.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): β’ Resolution for fire spread predictions: Determined by the official California fire website.
Follow Polymarket's resolution definition where appropriate.
Reference: Polymarket Event
Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - Charter schools are considered public schools (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - Excludes National Guard: Deployment count does not include National Guard troops. The deployment of the National Guard is addressed in a separate question, which has already been resolved as YES. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - Air Quality Resolution: The air quality market will be resolved as YES if weather apps show Los Angeles air quality as "good" or "moderate" and Palisades as "excellent", indicating that air quality is not a problem in most of the city. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-26-01 (PST): - Marines from Camp Pendleton are considered as deployed troops and qualify towards the deployment count. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-01-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
Resolving YES for up to 1.5 inches of rain in Los Angeles over the past 2 days.
Malibu was still closed as of yesterday, am trying to find more sources as the week goes on though. https://abc7.com/post/malibu-schools-closed-due-dangerous-road-conditions/15839958/
@Moscow25 requesting to resolve yes for up to 1.5 inches of rain in Los Angeles over the past 2 days
@Martlet yes -- though it's not clear to me that troops were ever deployed -- just on standby
I have no bet in that market and have not researched it thoroughly
National Guard was definitely deployed.... but Marines from Camp Pendleton -- yes would qualify
@Moscow25 To be clear, this will now resolve when the Palisades fire reaches 90% containment?
@NicoDelon nvm I think i understand why from the description (might want to update the option)
@Moscow25 for instance, if LA gets more than 0.25 in over the weekend, I would call that significant (mean monthly total for LA is 3.3 in).
The 2 pre-Jan 20 markets about 90% containment and the one about spread to Encino can resolve No. https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2025/1/7/palisades-fire
Created a related market: https://manifold.markets/VandelayIndustries/will-karen-bass-be-the-mayor-of-los
Biggest development is the Palisades fire spreading north, threatening Encino.
Making a few markets related to that -- this is Encino -- you can see it on the map just north of Mulholland Drive
@BlueDragon More like this kind of request I'd assume since Army National Guard is already there, expanding it to other military makes sense.
(I'm not the creator obviously, so it's up to them still)
U.S. military is ready to respond to California wildfires, FEMA's Criswell said
Published Sun, Jan 12 2025 12:56 PM EST
@Moscow25 California National Guard is not the same as US Army or Navy Reserves, which is not the same as US Army or Navy active troops.
Looks like there are active duty troops βstanding byβ, which I donβt know if that counts as deployed, but they are marines, not army or navy https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4026609/us-military-already-fighting-fires-in-california-ready-to-do-more/