@Moscow25 is it per status on the last of January, or will you include whatever's the first update in February? I think you usually go by the latter on your markets (am I conflating creators, perhaps?), but unless it's in description I imagine it should be by the former.

@Moscow25 ping :)

@HenriThunberg whatever is on the website on Feb 1st

Let's see if DeepSeek R1 makes a dent!

We are running low on time. But the models are pretty good. 1374 ELO

Big question is will there be a model launch in time...

You can bet on which one crosses 1400 first here

https://manifold.markets/ChinmayTheMathGuy/what-will-be-true-of-the-first-mode

@ChinmayTheMathGuy cool -- gave you some liquidity for that market -- needs more

Worth noting: this market is essentially https://manifold.markets/bobbill/will-any-llm-outrank-gpt4-by-150-el but with a 1 month later close date

Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?

2% chance. https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard If GPT-4.5 and reaches 150 Elo above GPT-4 market resolves yes. If at any point any llm / chatbot reaches this threshold, market resolves yes. I will not bet in this market.

I would recommend rewording the title to before february

also @Moscow25 wanna bet more at 55%? Got a limit up for an hour or so