Apparently people don't see the implications of the fact that Trump is quite old. For a 78 yo american, there's 5.32 % chance to die from old age next year. There's a bit less time, Trump is a bit older than 78 (78.62). Let's say 0.93*(5.32*0.38+5.88*0.62)=5.27 % . He can afford better treatment than your average american, but he also has other risks to end his presidency.

@mods Can you please resolve the Jan 1st sub questions?

At least some of these sort of call for market extension.

@NathanpmYoung Can be resolved.

@NathanpmYoung what's the conditions for this?

@MalachiteEagle What are the things you think are ambiguous?

@NathanpmYoung who is considered a credible source for this question? Reputable news organisations?

@MalachiteEagle Yes. Thank you for asking.

@NathanpmYoung which do you consider reputable?

Shameless plug:

Related market: /OlegEterevsky/when-will-there-be-a-ceasefire-in-u

If aimed at a testing site, will likely cause less than 10 civilian deaths.

This is EOY 2024 right?