Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2030?
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The Supreme Court is overwhelmingly conservative dominated, but that's specifically Federalist Society dominated, and the Federalist Society leans significantly libertarian of the Republican center, and libertarians are pro-gay-marriage. So I think there's only about a 10% chance the Supreme Court will overturn the precedent within the next five years.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/us/idaho-same-sex-marriage-supreme-court.html
Idaho Lawmakers Want Supreme Court to Overturn Same-Sex Marriage Decision
A state legislative committee has advanced a resolution asking that the power to regulate marriage be returned to the states.
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