Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
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77
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2027
56%
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Suggested resolution critera.

This market resolves "Yes" if, according to the Institute for Study War, Ukraine is in control of any territory in Crimea.

This market resolves "No" if, according to the Institute for Study War, Ukraine has control of 80% of either Luhansk or Donetsk Oblasts.

This market resolves "Ambiguous" if neither happens or if there is a nuclear strike prior to either happening.

Oct 8, 3:22pm: Will Ukraine invade Crimea before it takes back Luhansk or Donetsk? → Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?

Close date updated to 2024-01-01 12:01 am

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8mo

Delusional Nazis fantasizing about winning, but thank Putin, there is no victory for Nazis!

8mo

@early don't be so harsh on Utkin

2y

Will this resolve N/A if neither happens by end of April? I agree with Thagliou that neither is likely to happen in such a short time frame,

predictedNO 2y

@Yev Do you mind if I just push the time back?

predictedYES 2y

@NathanpmYoung I’d be willing to put more in the market if there was a higher chance of an Yes/No outcome

2y

These oblasts are massive, and they're just as dug in as Crimea. Seems more likely to me they manage to control a small amount of Crimea before retaking luhansk/donetsk oblasts. Though most likely I would guess this is resolved N/A.

2y

Is this about Luhansk and Donetsk cities or oblasts?

predictedYES 2y

@Nathan Young
This would be a good question to answer

predictedNO 2y

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