wouldn't someone who is not an option and other resolve the same way?

@Riley12 Hrrm. Good spotting. I don't think you could bet on "Other" when this market was created. Not sure what to do about that now. Though I'd be very surprised if the true answer wasn't in the market at close/resolve time - I don't really plan to close the market before someone steps on Mars anyway.

Will you extend the deadline of this market until someone lands on Mars? Because then "someone who isn't an option" will be false

Nice question!

@kolotom99 Thanks! I was fiddling with a market-tracking spreadsheet and needed a dummy market title, typed this out on a whim, and thought "Hang on, that could actually be a good one..."

@MartinRandall arguably not a person

Of course, I think (hard AI is true) xor (hard AI is false and we are not truly intelligent by the same definition)

@LivInTheLookingGlass My m1 is a bet that the first person will be an AI which has "personhood" in the relevant sense.

@MartinRandall An AI with personhood would count. Defining personhood will be tricky, but that's a bridge to be crossed later...

Who will be the first person on Mars?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition