Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?
Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?
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Will AI, AI safety or issues related to the externalities of AI (such as job loss or economic problems due to autonomous systems, or autonomous weapons systems) be in the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election, as measured by Gallup Polls?
See, for example, Top Issues for Voters 2022 https://news.gallup.com/poll/244367/top-issues-voters-healthcare-economy-immigration.aspx
This issue must be top 5 when ranked by portion of respondents who rank the issue as extremely or very important.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
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