Will Trump pardon Elon Musk ?
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk ?
Plus
54
Ṁ18k2029
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve according to Wikipedia (will disregard obvious troll edits). Basically if Musk ever legitimately appears in that wikipedia list this resolves YES.
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1,000and
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it's
P(Trump doesn't die during the term) x P(vance loses election) x P(Dems don't moderate significantly) x P(there is no MAGA coup)
i.e.
0.9 x 0.45 x 0.75 x 1 = 0.3
I was foolish to buy yes so high.
@AlexBokov These days presidents are handing out pardons to people who haven't been convicted. It's a new world where a presidential pardon is the US equivalent of being knighted.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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