When will the next probe successfully land on Venus?
When will the next probe successfully land on Venus?
Plus
15
Ṁ13122036
3%
Before 2026
18%
Before 2028
33%
Before 2030
33%
Before 2032
50%
Before 2034
68%
Before 2036
The last human-made spacecraft that landed on Venus was Soviet Vega 2 in 1985.
The question will resolve positively as soon as it becomes known that any new space probe successfully lands on Venus. The lander could topple or otherwise malfunction in some way, but to quality it has to remain in communication after the landing is over.
Before this happens, each answer will be resolve to NO as soon as the respective time period is over.
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When will the next probe successfully descend in the Venusian atmosphere?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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