Will both Noel and Liam appear at ~~all~~ *at least* 14 shows on the Oasis live '25 tour?

Plus

Ṁ2431

Aug 18

72%

chance

ALL

After 15 odd years of fighting and estrangement, Noel and Liam Gallagher have announced a 14 (update - now 33) date reunion tour with their band Oasis.

But conflict and carnage is never far behind the brothers, so there is a very real chance of things imploding before the tour is over.

To count as an appearance, both Noel and Liam most appear on the same stage at the same time.

If the tour is cancelled this will resolve NO.

If there are less than 14 dates this will resolve NO.

If there are dates added, under the 'Oasis Live '25' title, there will only need to be 14 appearances for a YES.

If the tour is postponed, I'll extend resolution if reasonable (at some point I'd be tempted to N/A the market).

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Music

#Oasis

Get

1,000

and

3.00

2 Comments

13 Holders

20 Trades

Sort by:

4mo

Up to 33 planned dates - buy

There is already talk of the brothers needing to be kept apart -sell

6mo

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/oasis-reunion-tour-additional-shows-announced-1235090723/

Well we now only need 14 of 17 shows to go ahead...

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

What is this?

Related questions

What is this?

Related questions