Who will be "almost president" in 2028?
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Plus
17
Ṁ8019
2028
75%
JD Vance
20%
Josh Shapiro
15%
Marco Rubio
15%
Kirsten Gillibrand
15%
Alex Padilla
15%
Greg Abbott
15%
Kathy Hochul
15%
J. B. Pritzker
15%
Tim Kaine
15%
Bob Casey Jr.
15%
Tammy Duckworth
15%
Thom Tillis
15%
Ted Budd
15%
Bernie Moreno
15%
Brian Kemp
15%
Roy Cooper
15%
Ted Cruz
15%
Ron DeSantis
14%
Jon Ossoff
14%
Raphael Warnock

This is about the election on Nov 7, 2028 (in 4 years).

Following the definition of "almost president" in my blog. For each of the Democratic and Republican primaries

  • The person winning the most delegates based on state contests

  • The runner up on delegates, but only if the winner is not a former president

Additionally, these unlikely conditions could trigger

  • The person nominated at the convention. This covers "dark horse" primary winners.

  • The first place candidate from the first ballot at the convention

  • The second place candidate from the first ballot at the convention if the first place candidate isn't the winner or runner up on delegates

  • Any candidate and their running mate if they get at least 10% of the popular vote in the general election or win at least one electoral vote in 2028. Faithless electors do not count.

https://pepeblog.substack.com/p/almost-presidents-2-senators

2025 Jan 24 - Edited to clarify that e.g. Kamala Harris is a dark horse candidate but this wouldn't cause Dean Phillips to become an almost president.

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Any third party candidate and their running mate if they get at least 10% of the popular vote or win at least one electoral vote

Do you mean if they get/win that in 2024?

No, this whole question is about 2028.

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