MAJOR POLLING UPDATE:

Conservatives achieve all-time leads with Abacus Data, Ipsos, and Relay Strategies, proving that the Conservatives are popular and that it isn't simply Trudeau's unpopularity that is the issue, but the Liberal apparatus as a whole.

Conservatives continue to massively outnumber both the Liberals and NDP combined, up 8 or 9 points depending on the poll (this lead would be enough to defeat the Liberals, let alone both combined).

• Abacus Data lead (+27) (ALL-TIME HIGH (prev. +25))

• Ipsos lead (+26) (ALL-TIME HIGH (prev. +25))

• Relay Strategies lead (+24) (ALL-TIME HIGH (prev. +23))

  

@spider you will lose a lot of mana by the end of this

MAJOR POLLING UPDATE:

LIBERALS ACHIEVE ALL-TIME LOW POLLING RESULT OF 16%, 5 POINTS BELOW NDP:

By-election update: In the riding of Cloverdale-Langley City, the Conservative candidate utterly demolished the new candidate for the incumbent Liberal party. In the 2021 election, the Liberal candidate got 39.21% of the vote and the Conservatives, 36.10%. In the 2024 by-election the Conservative candidate got 66.30% of the vote and the Liberals, in a distant second, 16.03%. That's an astonishing 26.69 percentage point swing. In fact, every single party lost votes except for the Conservatives, showcasing their dominance in ability to attract voters from all across the political spectrum:

338Canada update:

Major parties:

• Conservatives achieve their highest ever seat projection of 232, up from 229. They are projected to obtain a supermajority. Conservatives also achieve their highest ever popular vote projection, at 45%, up from 44%

• The Bloc Quebecois, now the second largest party, maintained an all time high of 45 seats, and obtained a 61% of becoming the official opposition, their highest ever yet, up from 43%. They maintain their all time high vote percentage of 8%

Minor parties:

• Liberals achieve their lowest ever seat projection of just 39, down from 51, with their chance of remaining the official opposition at a staggering 36%, an all-time low, down from 56%. Liberals achieve their lowest ever popular vote projection of 20%, down from 22%

• The NDP is projected to win 25 seats, the same number won last election. Their chances of becoming the official opposition rise to an all time high of 3%, up from less than 1%. They are projected to get 19% of popular vote, up from 18% in the previous election

Regional landscape:

• The Conservatives are projected to win a supermajority of seats in every province except Quebec, where the Bloc Quebecois wins a majority

• The Liberals are projected to win 0 seats in: Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut. Nova Scotia is a new addition, previously having 2 Liberal seats projected

• The Liberals are projected to win just 1 seat in: British Columbia, Manitoba, and Newfoundland and Labrador

• The Liberals are projected to win just 2 seats in New Brunswick

• Combining Ontario and Quebec, the Liberals are projected to get just 17% of their seats

• Trudeau's previously safe seat of Papineau is now only a leaning seat, with an all-time low 74% chance of winning his own seat, NDP at 26% chance of winning it

@gwylim Can you please sell your Maxime Bernier shares? I plan on editing it to be something else. Let me know when you do so, thanks.

If you lose any mana let me know and I'll reimburse you. Also I think I robbed you last time, I think I should have paid you your expected payout had it resolved No. Let me know what it is and I'll pay double (assuming it's similar to what Elizabeth May's was)

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh succumbs to political pressure and will force an election early next year. Polls showing results if an election were held today now have more weight as there is little time to change before an election is called

@PeterNjeim if Trudeau resigns he probably won’t

@cadca Maybe, but siding with the Liberals will be politically costly, I hope that's incentive enough

@gwylim Can you please sell your Elizabeth May shares? I plan on editing it to be something else. Let me know when you do so, thanks.

If you lose any mana let me know and I'll reimburse you.

@PeterNjeim Sold, gained a small profit