Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?
Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?
➕
Plus
64
Ṁ19k
2030
11%
chance

Resolves NO if humanity is still around in 2030. Otherwise, we just have to hope that who/whatever is left resolves it correctly.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
bought Ṁ100 NO2mo

This market will print mana for me all the way to 2030

8mo

This is silly, because it cannot resolve to yes, you will not be alive to resolve it

bought Ṁ50 NO8mo

People can vote yes to express their fears, and if yes gets high enough, you can sell in order to enjoy your mana in what remains of your life

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules