seems possible

@LiamZ Now it's your turn to be pedanted on. 😉

Would a signal or transmission of a technological blueprint count? Or does the technology need to corporeally and physically exist?

@Quroe thanks I actually did think of that but felt it was too long to try to get in there. Let’s say it has to be a physical object. If another civ is transmitting in the past and the signal is reaching us now it’d count for the detection of life elsewhere question but not this one.

@SteveSokolowski the US government already acknowledges the existence of dolphins, chimpanzees, etc. so this is trivially YES.

@LiamZ I did think about that, but they have to aknowledge that they are intelligent.

@Quroe, the DOD has been using dolphins’ intelligence to find things on our coasts:

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3785968/marine-mammal-program-contributes-to-national-security/

I would say them continuing to do that into 2025 counts. But if not, it's going to turn into seriously splitting hairs and looking for ultra-specific wording from random officials which isn't a particularly interesting market.

Honestly this was likely supposed to be “extra-terrestrial intelligence” but that is totally a different thing from “non-human intelligence on earth” by definition.

Edit: I put mana down to give an option about extra-terrestrial intelligence rather than terrestrial non-human intelligence (which would also include AGI if reached based on wording and will confuse people if that doesn't count).

@LiamZ I guess I'm personally hung up on if they specifically use the word "intelligent" or similar. That being said, I have no personal stake in this market yet and am just being pedantic for the sake of being pedantic.

@Quroe that’s what I mean by hunting for specific wording. Dolphins have intelligence. Dolphins are non-human. The US government has been funding studies on dolphin intelligence, communication, and training them for decades. Dolphins are on Earth.

If the market is just about the exact wording of every statement made by people in these programs until the end of the year, that is not very interesting. If it's not counting all the non-human intelligence on Earth right now then it should say something besides “non-human intelligence on Earth.”

@SteveSokolowski Does AGI count?

@Quroe No.

@SteveSokolowski If a mission to Mars is launched, at what point in the journey would this resolve YES? 100% of the way there? 51%? 5%? In the event that the mission fails in transit, this could be a gray area.

Does a moon landing count?

I presume the International Space Station would not count?

Edit: quick modification to the specific percentages I used. Also added more context to my question in paragraph 1 about a failed mission.

@Quroe I would suggest anywhere except in low Earth orbit.

Let the record show that my edits on the original comment were made before clarification was made.

@PoliticalEconomyPK By what authority are we judging by?

Are we going by a NOAA report?

@Quroe we're going by NASA

@PoliticalEconomyPK Just to be clear, does US military conquest count?

@Quroe no it will not count. Greenland has to join on their own

@PoliticalEconomyPK The AI went a little rogue when it tried to summarize your answer here.

• Update 2025-27-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - US military conquest does not count as an event that would resolve the answer to N/A

  • Greenland must join the USA voluntarily

@Quroe i fixed it in the description

@traders Added new answers

@PoliticalEconomyPK MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025 resolves NO

@Spin done

@SteveSokolowski

This needs clarified. Can earth animals or AI cause it to resolve yes? I assume it is meant to be a Q about extraterrestrials, but wanted to be sure.

@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso relevant: project CETI https://www.projectceti.org/