Resolves as YES if at least 10 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2028.
Different number of robots:
Will 2K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?93%
Will 5K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?88%
Will 10K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?87% (this question)
Will 20K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?87%
Will 50K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?74%
Will 100K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?74%
Will 200K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?66%
Will 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?43%
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?27%
Will 2M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?12%
Different years:
Will 10K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?87% (this question)
Will 10K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?84%
Will 10K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?84%
Will 10K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?85%
Other questions for 2028:
Will we get AGI before 2028?45%
Will we get ASI before 2028?27%
Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2028?14%
Will we discover alien life before 2028?8%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2028?17%
Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2028?83%
These humanoid robots must meet specific criteria to be counted towards this total. Each robot must be bipedal, walking upright on two legs in a manner that broadly resembles human walking. Additionally, each robot must be equipped with hands capable of manipulating objects. The hands should have fingers or similar appendages, allowing them to grip, hold, and interact with various items. Each robot must be capable of autonomous function without external power for a duration of at least 1 hour in order to qualify in the context of this question.
Each robot must be between 1.25 and 3 meters tall when standing up, and weigh between 25 and 500 kg. Furthermore, each robot must be able to lift a 5kg box off the floor and walk with it for 10 meters in order to qualify.
Cold fusion posted a good Robotic overview recently.
https://youtu.be/QwAYJPjW2gI?feature=shared
Includes a quote that the robotic market is projected to be $216 billion by 2032
Boston Dynamics retired hydraulic version of Altas - but announces all electric version - https://www.businessinsider.com/boston-dynamics-new-fully-electric-humanoid-robot-atlas-2024-4?amp
Funding for Humanoid Robots is already at record levels for 2024 YTD - currently at $775M across 3 deals according to CB insights - https://www.cbinsights.com/research/humanoid-robotics-tech-trends-2023/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Apptronic's Apollo specs - https://apptronik.com/news-collection/apptronik-unveils-apollo
160 pounds in weight,
5 foot 8 inches tall,
ability to lift 55 pounds
4 hour runtime
Worth keeping an eye on these companies
- Boston Dynamics Atlas - https://bostondynamics.com/atlas/
- Agility Robotics - Agility anticipates production capacity of hundreds of Digit robots in the first year, with the capability to scale to more than 10,000 robots per year.
- Figure - https://www.figure.ai/master-plan
- Apptronic - https://apptronik.com/about-us
The hard part will be sourcing the information on production numbers as most are not listed companies.