Will a human walk on Pluto before 2040?
Will a human walk on Pluto before 2040?
➕
Plus
21
Ṁ2318
2040
3%
chance

Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of Pluto before January 1st 2040.

Questions with the same criteria:

Will a human walk on Pluto before 2040?3% (this question)

Will a human walk on Pluto before 2045?6%

Will a human walk on Pluto before 2050?9%

Pluto orbit questions:

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2025?NO

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2030?2%

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2035?2%

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2040?3%

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2045?8%

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2050?10%

Solar system surface venture questions:

Will a human walk on Mercury before 2040?7%

Will a human walk on Venus before 2040?3%

Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?56%

Will a human walk on Pluto before 2040?3% (this question)

Solar system exploration questions:

Will there be a crewed mission to Mercury before 2040?13%

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2040?16%

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?65%

Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2040?7%

Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2040?8%

Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2040?4%

Will there be a crewed mission to Neptune before 2040?5%

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2040?3%

Other questions:

Will we get AGI before 2040?81%

Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2040?6%

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2040?5%

To meet the criteria, the human must be awake for at least ten continuous minutes on the surface of Pluto outside of a spacecraft. The human may be wearing a pressure suit or similar device. Furthermore, during this awake period, the human's heart rate must not drop below 30 beats per minute. The safe return of the human is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to YES. If the human is in a state of suspended animation or asleep at the time of leaving the spacecraft to venture onto the Plutonian surface, they must be successfully resuscitated or woken up for at least 10 continuous minutes before returning to the spacecraft.

The human does not necessarily need to walk, and can use a wheelchair or some other form of mobility device to navigate the Plutonian surface. They must be outside of the spacecraft and with either their body or a pressure suit exposed to the Plutonian vacuum (or atmosphere if Pluto possesses one on this date) in order to fulfil the criteria of this question. If the human is wearing a pressure suit, then the volume of the human must occupy at minimum 30% of the volume of the pressure suit in order for it to count as a pressure suit and not a spacecraft/vehicle. Either the human's body or pressure suit must make contact with the Plutonian surface. If the human exits the craft and enters a space underneath the Plutonian surface, such as a cavern or an underground base, then this does not qualify as venturing out onto the Plutonian surface. In the case that the human is outside of the spacecraft without a pressure suit, then they must survive on the Plutonian surface for at least 10 continuous minutes and remain awake with a heartrate of at least 30bpm during that time.

The human venturing onto the Plutonian surface must possess both a functioning brain and heart, with limited alterations. These vital organs may have undergone chemical, mechanical, or electronic modifications, provided that these enhancements do not significantly alter the organ's functioning compared to that of a typical human. Complete modification or replacement of any other organ in the human's body, including those enabling the human to survive on the surface of Pluto without a pressure suit, is permissible within the context of this question. The human must also have a mass of less than 500kg (can be a cyborg but with some limits).

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules