Will GPT-5 be released before Jun 2025?
Will GPT-5 be released before Jun 2025?
➕
Plus
30
Ṁ2290
Jun 6
45%
chance

Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before June 1st 2025

Questions with the same criteria:

Will GPT-5 be released before Feb 2024?NO

Will GPT-5 be released before Mar 2024?NO

Will GPT-5 be released before Apr 2024?NO

Will GPT-5 be released before May 2024?NO

Will GPT-5 be released before Jun 2024?NO

Will GPT-5 be released before Jul 2024?NO

Will GPT-5 be released before Aug 2024?NO

Will GPT-5 be released before Sep 2024?NO

Will GPT-5 be released before Oct 2024?NO

Will GPT-5 be released before Nov 2024?NO

Will GPT-5 be released before Dec 2024?NO

Will GPT-5 be released before Jan 2025?NO

Will GPT-5 be released before Feb 2025?1%

Will GPT-5 be released before Mar 2025?1%

Will GPT-5 be released before Apr 2025?16%

Will GPT-5 be released before May 2025?22%

Will GPT-5 be released before Jun 2025?45% (this question)

Will GPT-5 be released before Jul 2025?72%

Will GPT-5 be released before Aug 2025?77%

Will GPT-5 be released before Sep 2025?89%

Will GPT-5 be released before Oct 2025?90%

Will GPT-5 be released before Nov 2025?90%

Will GPT-5 be released before Dec 2025?91%

Will GPT-5 be released before Jan 2026?89%

Will GPT-5 be released before Feb 2026?91%

In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.

A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.

If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules