Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2037?
Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2037?
Basic
2
Ṁ60
2037
72%
chance

Resolves as YES if there is a credible clinical trial that demonstrates an intervention significantly reducing the progression of atherosclerosis before January 1st 2037.

Related questions:

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2027?20%

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2028?28%

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2029?43%

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2030?49%

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2031?53%

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2032?48%

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2033?55%

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2034?62%

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2035?63%

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2036?74%

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2037?72% (this question)

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2038?74%

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2039?72%

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2040?72%


In the context of this question, "significantly reducing the progression of atherosclerosis" must demonstrate at least two of the following criteria:

  • Reducing the CAC (Coronary Artery Calcium) score progression rate to 5% annually or lower (on average).

  • Reducing the buildup of non-calcified plaque compared to statins plus PCSK9 inhibitor therapy by a factor of at least 5 over a time period of at least 2 years.

  • Reducing the buildup of calcified plaque compared to statins plus PCSK9 inhibitor therapy by a factor of at least 5 over a time period of at least 2 years.

  • Demonstrating a statistically significant reduction in the buildup of plaque in other organs (non-heart) of the body compared to statins plus PCSK9 inhibitor therapy over a time period of at least 2 years.



The intervention can be any combination of therapies, which may include but are not limited to statins and PCSK9 inhibitors. The clinical trial must include at least 2000 adults, with no more than 70% belonging to the same ethnic group, ensuring at least 30% representation from other ethnic groups. The trial should ideally be a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study or a meta-analysis of such studies.

If a clinical study demonstrates at least two of the above criteria with respect to another therapy, or set of therapies, that are known to slow atherosclerosis to a greater extent than "statins plus PCSK9 inhibitor", then this also qualifies.

The trial cannot focus exclusively on a specific subset of the disease population (e.g. hypercholesterolemia), it must be roughly representative of either the general adult population, the population with established ASCVD, or a subset with high risk factors. Cohorts selected based on symptoms, imaging data and prior events are also acceptable (provided these prior events do not put the patients in very specific categories like heart transplants. Prior stents/angioplasty would qualify since this is much more common). Any median age above 18 is acceptable, provided the cohort includes at least one patient older than 70 and at least one patient younger than 45.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules