Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2100?
Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2100?
➕
Plus
29
Ṁ2323
2100
17%
chance

Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2100, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a single or small (<50) finite number of large structures occupying 1% of the available angles), although it does not necessarily need to include other orbits (e.g. polar). If it occupies a ring around the sun, then both a swarm or a single monolithic structure qualify in the context of this question.

Questions with the same criteria:

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2025?NO

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2030?3%

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2040?5%

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2050?9%

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2060?10%

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2070?13%

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2080?14%

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2090?14%

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2100?17% (this question)

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2110?22%

Image credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyson_Sphere_Render.png

Image source: Image courtesy of Kevin M. Gill on Flickr, licensed under CC BY 2.0. Available at: https://flickr.com/photos/53460575@N03/29401385502

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

No way we are getting a dyson sphere until another 500 years

1y

@grofigaszadosijv feel free to put 500 mana on NO 😄

Would a Dyson Swarm count? How about a large amount of big concentrating mirrors focused on a few focal points?

1y

@Shump Dyson Swarm counts. Concentrating mirrors count provided there are at least 50 of them and they harness at least 1% of the Sun's power output.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules