Wait this resolves in 2030? Oops

Oswald acted alone ... but he was aiming for Connally.

What new evidence is coming out between now and 2030? lol

To clarify, I seriously doubt anything in the remaining unreleased documents will contradict the lone gunman theory.

The CIA did it, but scholars, researchers, and historians will never admit it.

it's definietely not the CIA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gG6LrzOcZJk&t=239s

oh wait

https://twitter.com/vdarknessfalls8/status/1730221179871302062

@mistersplice that's a lot of words for someone not betting

@Joshua I have a position, but with this question it’s basically like throwing mana away

@ersatz If only there were a plausible way this market would be resolved, I would happily put a ton on it. The odds that it was the CIA are certainly less than 1%.

@SemioticRivalry Simply not true.

@SemioticRivalry Where did you get that near absolute certainty?

@NicoDelon the prior is extremely low, no compelling evidence has come out in 60 years, and the sequence of events required makes it much more unlikely. The lemmino video I think did a good job at laying out how many coincidences were required to get oswald into Texas school book depository, and how it'd be near impossible for someone to plan.

@SemioticRivalry Thanks. That doesn’t quite move it below one percent for me. Priors are weird entities. How do you estimate those in a nation that wasn’t even two centuries old, at the height of the cold war, with an unusual president who nearly caused a nuclear war and is partly responsible for the Vietnam war?

@NicoDelon I think that other liberal democracies are a valid reference class for the United States, and as far as I am aware nothing similar has happened there, which gives us a fairly large sample.

@SemioticRivalry Fair enough.

I’m interested to see whether this causes any movement in the market. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66792977

Ex-Secret Service agent reveals new JFK assassination detail

Ex-Secret Service agent Paul Landis reveals a new detail some say upends the "single bullet theory".

@Noit It will not.

I say that before reading it, because I know how these things work.

@DavidBolin To me it seems very minor, though I’m not a Kennedy historian. But as time moves on we’re going to see less and less new evidence, so it’s kind of interesting to see what it’d take to move the needle.

Oswald being so low is baffling

@SemioticRivalry 60% isn't low. I think the CIA was oddly low (it was at like 6% before)

Non-oswald jfk assasination theories are enormously popular, oswald is low for the same reason election prediction markets are often mispriced, there are just a lot of people who are enthusiastic about other options

@jacksonpolack Most Americans believe that Oswald didn't act alone. I think the main plausible alternative is CIA, all the other theories have been debunked. Given most Americans think it was more than one person involved then the real question is why is oswald alone trading so HIGH?

Given most Americans think it was more than one person involved then the real question is why is oswald alone trading so HIGH?

Most Americans want to lower taxes and increase government spending. They believe all sorts of things.

@jacksonpolack You can do that if you borrow money and the inflate the debt away or even just grow enough that the debt/gdp ratio remains under control