At what age will Richard Hanania die?
At what age will Richard Hanania die?
Basic
17
Ṁ30302106
85
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://www.richardhanania.com/p/my-plan-to-slow-down-aging
If he lives past 120 this market will resolve to the maximum value.
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Nice, Richard just linked to this market.
https://www.richardhanania.com/p/huge-savings-on-the-richard-hanania
Actuarial table would have him at expected life of 77, for average US male. But they're much wealthier, healthier than average I'm guessing, so an expectancy of 80+ is not weird.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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