Will CNSA's Chang'e 8 mission successfully land on the moon?
Will CNSA's Chang'e 8 mission successfully land on the moon?
Plus
13
Ṁ4912029
76%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Chang'e 8 lander is built by the China Academy of Space Technology (CAST) for CNSA, China's national space agency. The last three moon landers built by CAST, Chang'e 3 and Chang'e 4, and Chang'e 5 were successful.
For a successful mission the lander needs to soft-land on the moon, and the payloads on the lander need to be operational.
The Chang'e 8 mission is preceeded by Chang'e 6 and 7
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Just to check, how does this resolve in the unlikely event that Chang'e 8 is renamed, cancelled, or its scope significantly changed (such as to not include a lunar landing - not that that's remotely likely to happen)
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will CNSA's Chang'e 7 mission successfully land on the moon?
90% chance
Will CNSA's Chang'e 6 mission successfully return a sample from the moon?
99% chance
Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?
60% chance
Will Astrobotic Technology's Griffin Mission 1 mission successfully land on the moon?
74% chance
Will CNSA's Chang'e-6 discover significant amounts of rare earth elements?
33% chance
Will Astrobotic's Astrobotic Mission 3 mission successfully land on the moon?
55% chance
Will Roscosmos's Luna 27 mission successfully land on the moon?
37% chance
Will ESA's HERACLES mission successfully land on the moon?
57% chance
Will Astrobotic's Griffin Lander land (mostly successfully) on the moon?
58% chance
Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with an asteroid?
73% chance